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Post 001

In the previous post we talked about what odds are and how these give us indications in percentage terms about how the bookmakers evaluate the potential of two teams involved in a football match. But how do bookmakers calculate the odds of a match? Let's see the procedure together:

The victories achieved by the home team are taken and added to the number of defeats totaled by the home team plays away divided by the number of games played by both teams. Example:

Arsenal - Liverpool 12th matchday of the championship;

Arsenal have won 7 times while Liverpool have lost 3 times. In this case we have a sum equal to 10 (7 + 3); we divide 10 by 24 and we obtain 0.416 which we multiply by 100 in order to obtain a victory percentage for Arsenal of 41.6%. This same reasoning is then repeated for the last 5 days of the championship, the latter value which partly corresponds to the form of a team.

The bookmakers then refine these percentages thus obtained with other variables such as the impressions received from the observers of the various mandate agencies to attend training sessions, number of supporters who will be present at the stadium, etc. What is obtained at the end of this procedure is called statistical picket or theoretical, and expresses in a theoretical way the potential of the teams, at least on paper and excluding the influences arising from everything that is not statistical.

About 2 weeks before the match, however, bookmakers present, when quoting a football match, another type of peg, called presentation peg, which originates from the statistical one but which undergoes a series of modifications due for example to number of injured, disqualified, other scheduled competitions that could cause high turnover, etc. This same picket, gradually yes as the match date approaches, it undergoes further changes with odds that skyrocket or plummet, the famous drop odds; these variations give rise to the current or real picket and are due to all the information that the various informants provide and communicate to the agency for which they work. Relevant news the players, arguments and bad moods within the locker room or management, possible changes of coach in sight, injuries shortly before the match, weather conditions not favorable to the type of play of one of the two teams, etc.

As you have read, these informants play an important and fundamental role within a football betting company, making so that the latter does not suffer dangerous losses of money; in fact, remember dear friends that bookmakers don't make mistakes, and if a match in your opinion it presents strange prices, rest assured that they didn't do the calculations wrong but they know something more than you so they run to the repairs. Obviously this is a logic that they apply on large numbers and which guarantees them to always go positive; then it goes without saying that it is not the single one game with a surprise result and beyond all predictions that can ruin a bookmaker. So you've seen how everything revolves around quotas, and the latter are precisely the tool used by our system, as we will see in subsequent posts, to carry out its analysis and its predictions. See you next time!

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