We continue our journey to discover the functionality of our system. Going into the detail of a game we can see the top left
a box dedicated to the variations of the odds starting from the theoretical ones up to the current ones. At the top right we find the first of the two statistical graphs which
we will use to study the quotas. We will see that based on the shape that the lines take we will be able to identify the type of game we are in
analyzing, i.e. whether it started from possible 12 or from 1X or X2. At the bottom left we see the graphic representation of the table shown on
on the right where the prediction accuracy percentages and the various algorithms relating to the championship in question are listed.
Our research team has noticed, by analyzing the odds attributed by bookmakers to the various football matches of the various championships, that these,
depending on the starting values โโ(the presentation odds), their variations and other parameters identified by our analysts who
for obvious reasons of intellectual secrecy we do not divulge, they systematically led to well-defined final results. From this study it is
Our basic algorithm (or raw) called RA has been developed. This algorithm is periodically refined by our engineers to push it
towards an increasingly higher success rate. The basic algorithm always expresses its prediction so you will never see a NO BET and this
Its characteristic helps the better a lot in the process of analysis of a match. We then have two filters, the one based on amplitude
of variations in odds (dropping odds) and that based on the starting range of odds. Both of these two filters applied to the algorithm
base give rise to two new algorithms OF (for the variations) and RF (for the starting range). The next one, named CF, applies both.
As already repeated, the basis of everything is the study of the odds, the rest is of no use, in fact the statistical performance of the team, injuries, weather conditions, these
these are all considerations that the bookmaker has already made and have produced a series of variations in the theoretical odds first, and in the presentation subsequently.
The possible variations that occur on a given theoretical peg follow a pattern, a model that has certainly already presented itself with a
certain frequency in the past in the same league or in another, it doesn't matter. What must be kept in mind, however, is that certain values โโof the odds
initials of a football match and the subsequent variations identify a specific development of the match, providing an almost predictable outcome of the latter,
obviously discounted for the system! Everything seems to repeat itself over time and these cyclical patterns contained in our databases have enabled our
computer system to train itself to recognize them and to further stress the analysis process the latter applies filters to exclude
those football matches that do not follow a well-known model. In reality the encounter is not discarded but presented by the algorithm that is hosting it
analyzing it like a NO BET game. The algorithms that deal with the recognition and analysis of the match in the program are 6 and with
different procedural characteristics due to the more or less restrictive level of selection; here they are in the list:
I hope the last post was very useful to understand well what odds actually are and how these viewed in their entirety, i.e.
by analyzing the real picket with the theoretical and presentational one, they can actually tell us everything or almost everything about how a meeting is oriented
of football.
Obviously we will not predict the exact number of goals or yellow cards rather than the penalty kicks awarded , subjects
of unrealistic ambition and already extensively addressed in previous articles but a prediction enclosed in a double chance with a very high
I would say that the probability of it happening is more than within our reach. Our goal is to bet on football, having fun but at the same time
earning!
The odds therefore and nothing else, because they contain the fruit of the analysis of professionals, the bookmakers, who cannot afford to make mistakes!
Let's also dispel that rumor that these people try to deceive bettors, well! It's not absolutely true! Bookmakers don't want it
deceive anyone because if they presented odds that were not consistent with the real potential of the teams, for example by raising a 2 to 8.5, i.e. the
away win of a team, which in reality should be priced at 3 or 4 and then this actually wins, then for the football betting agencies
it would be a big problem. They would be doomed to failure.
In the previous post we talked about what odds are and how these give us indications in percentage terms about how the
bookmakers evaluate the potential of two teams involved in a football match. But how do bookmakers calculate the odds
of a match? Let's see the procedure together:
The victories achieved by the home team are taken and added to the number of defeats totaled by the home team
plays away divided by the number of games played by both teams. Example:
Arsenal - Liverpool 12th matchday of the championship;
Arsenal have won 7 times while Liverpool have lost 3 times. In this case we have a sum equal to 10 (7 + 3);
we divide 10 by 24 and we obtain 0.416 which we multiply by 100 in order to obtain a victory percentage for Arsenal of 41.6%.
This same reasoning is then repeated for the last 5 days of the championship, the latter value which partly corresponds to the form of a team.
The bookmakers then refine these percentages thus obtained with other variables such as the impressions received from the observers of the various mandate agencies
to attend training sessions, number of supporters who will be present at the stadium, etc. What is obtained at the end of this procedure is called
statistical picket or theoretical, and expresses in a theoretical way the potential of the teams, at least on paper and excluding the influences arising from
everything that is not statistical.
For any further information, clarification, requests for collaboration, of a commercial nature or technical support, contact us at the following e-mail addresses: